Inspired by Sam Freedman’s article in the TES last week on what to expect with schools’ policy in 2025, I thought I would have a go at making and sharing some of my own school predictions, not least to create a bit of accountability and to see how wrong I am at the end of the year!  Feel free to agree/disagree and make your own. What have I missed off? For the sake of clarity, these are all just personal predictions based on the likelihood rather than a preference of outcome.

The school predictions for 2025:

  1. No changes to DfE ministerial team
  2. STRB to recommend >2.8% on teacher pay in England
  3. Industrial action to take place in the Autumn Term
  4. Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill to pass with some minor changes
  5. Curriculum Review to inevitably get a mixed review from the sector
  6. Teacher recruitment to miss targets again
  7. Greater backlash against phones & social media with Josh Macalister’s Bill to become law
  8. Rise in independent school closures and collective partnerships. More schools leaving the TPS.

 

Detailed justifications below:

DfE Ministerial Team

Given the merry-go-round of education ministers that we’ve seen with previous governments (5 different Secretaries of State in 2022!), I’m going to predict that we will see the same ministerial team in place at the end of the year. Whilst Bridget Phillipson has (and will likely continue) to come under greater political pressure with the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill (CWSB) I expect that we will see the core schools’ team of BP, Catherine McKinnell and Stephen Morgan remain in place which should at least provide some benefits for long-term planning and policy coherence even if there are some who would prefer a change of personnel. Hopefully there won’t be any scandals but we’re yet to see a parliament without some and with some other ministers under pressure, a reshuffle impacting the DfE can’t be completely ruled out.

Confidence of Prediction (COP) – 75%

 

Pay and Conditions

I predict that the STRB will recommend that teacher pay in England to surpass that of the 2.8% that the government has suggested and as a best guess this figure will be 3.3%. They will also remove the need for schools to pay TLRs on a pro rata basis to increase flexibility.

COP – 70% STRB being >2.8% less confident on the specific %. 100% on TLR flexibility.

 

Industrial Action

If my prediction above holds true, the DfE will be in a bind. I think it unlikely that they will refuse to match the STRB recommendation but I can’t see the Treasury providing extra funding for the pay rise so the money will either have to come from existing school budgets or cuts to other DfE spending. Given that the unions will be asking for a higher % and for it to be matched by new funding, I think we are on a collision course for some form of industrial action. The key issue will be whether this is coordinated amongst the unions, or we see the likes of the @NEU splinter off. My best guess is that following union conferences in April, we will see a coordinated approach and formal ballots take place during Summer Term with a view to taking strike action in Autumn and I think NEU, NASUWT, ASCL and NAHT will vote for strike action. The campaign noise will focus on school funding, rather than teacher pay.

COP – Lots of moving parts so hard to predict with more certainty so I’m putting this at 30% for there to be coordinated strike action in the Autumn Term. Also very possible that ballots are delayed until Autumn reasons related to the Employment Rights Bill (too long for this post). I have greater confidence of there being some sort of strike action this year though, perhaps with one union going it alone (80%).

 

Teachers Pensions

Whilst I don’t think there will be a direct challenge or policy change on this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more discourse about the overall teacher renumeration package with possible changes to pensions being suggested to front-load teacher pay. I suspect there will be more conversation about proposals like that suggested by United Learning CEO Jon Coles last year. It would take a brave minister to put this into the conversation especially with teachers’ pay in dispute so I’m predicting a little more conversation on this but nothing in the way of serious action. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this in future years though, especially if academy freedoms are removed.
COP – 20% focus on other issues might mean that this is avoided altogether.

 

Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill

The bill will come under a lot of scrutiny as it passes through parliament and I expect there to be a number of significant amendments, particularly those challenging academy freedoms. Given that the academies sector was blindsided by the reforms as they were not part of the Labour manifesto, there was no time to coordinate a united response as it was published. This will not be the case now with the Confederation of School Trusts and other groups working with members and their local MPs to put pressure for changes. The Conservatives will fight hard to protect what they see as key structural reforms made during their tenure. However, given the large Commons majority, I predict that the main thrust of the bill will remain intact, although at some cost to BP’s political capital. Some of this will bring further challenges to the system, not least to the already backlogged Teacher Regulation Agency where an additional 200,000 teachers and lecturers from FE colleges and other workplaces will now come within scope of the agency.

COP – 100% the bill will pass. 60% that will be some concessions on academies changes but none of massive significance.

 

Curriculum Review

Professor Becky Francis’ review team will publish on time and despite there being some sensible recommendations in there, will be met with annoyance and anger by different stakeholders and also receive some overegged media coverage on specific elements. This is no slight on the review team but rather a reflection of the nature of the challenge of trying to come up with a curriculum that pleases all which I think is a bit of an impossible task.

COP – 100% there will be complaints about the recommendations but I do think there will be a general consensus that there are a number of sensible suggestions.

 

Teacher Recruitment

I think we will see another year of missing recruitment targets driven mainly by societal trends for a preference for more flexible working (e.g. via private tutoring) and graduates preferring other routes. Business Studies will miss the target by the largest amount. Both Primary (83%) and Secondary (53%) will miss targets.  This will add to the calls for increased pay and funding for the sector but given that the data is unlikely to be published until December, won’t be that useful for any industrial action campaign.

COP – 100% on missing targets. 30% on the specific targets (+/- 5%)

 

Phones & Social Media in schools

2024 saw a real shift in momentum on smart phones and social media and I suspect this year to be even more significant. Josh Macalister’s Protection of Children (Digital Safety and Data Protection) Bill is a bold attempt at driving real reform in this space. I am going to go out on a whim here and say that he will garner the necessary support for it become law although the focus and attention given the Assisted Dying Bill might well impact the likelihood of this happening. Regardless, I think we will see more schools choosing to ban mobile phones, greater calls for tighter regulation from government and a greater acknowledgement from society about the potential harms of these technologies.

COP – 15% – mainly driven by the uncertainties surrounding private members’ bills

 

Independent Sector

It will still take time for the impacts of VAT to be fully felt in the sector. That said, I think we will see a small rise in private school closures compared to previous years. A more likely outcome is that we will see the rise of private schools clustering together in partnership or perhaps even in more formal arrangements similar to multi-academy trusts (albeit retaining the freedoms that are under threat in the state sector). With more pressure on private school finances, I suspect we will see more schools exit the TPS and therefore there may be more industrial action in this sector as unions gain further traction in protecting existing arrangements.

COP – 40% – still a lot of uncertainty about how this will all play out.

That’s my take on what 2025 holds for schools’ policy. Have I got my school predictions right, or am I completely off the mark? Only time will tell…

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