What if exam results are not as predicted? Is capability likely?

What if exam results are not as predicted?

A-Level and Level 3 results have been released. There will be someone in school furiously working out ‘the data’, ‘the stats’, ‘the key metrics’ and so ‘define the narrative’. Equally, as GCSE and Level 2 course results are released the data analysis templates for the ‘data drill down’ will be dusted off and powered up. Normally results are as you broadly expect. But when things don’t go to plan…is a capability process likely? 

A bygone era, but with lessons for now

In 2012 a shock wave shuddered through the exam offices around the country. After GCSE results were released, senior leaders were furiously contacting their peers in other schools to see if their English GCSE results were just an anomaly or if there was widespread concern.

At the time, the ACSL said “What appears to have happened is that, halfway through the year, it was decided that too many students were going to get a C grade in English and the grade boundaries of the exam were pushed up very substantially”. See the 2012 BBC coverage here.

The impact of this was many pupils missed the grade C threshold and post-16 providers had to ensure provision increased for retakes. Questions were raised about how this left pupils feeling having been given every indication a gateway grade C was predicted. Now these pupils were left feeling let down and wondering what to do now.

The knock on impact in schools was that teachers were put under scrutiny, Heads of English were asked to account for the results and senior leaders found themselves not being able to explain the strange results to governors and of course external bodies too…including Ofsted inspectors.

To quote one senior leader at the time “I genuinely thought we had downloaded another school’s results in a mix up. They were so far away from both historical data and our predictions’. 

Lessons learned?

We now have a situation where the appraisal system in schools is seen as professionally developmental and the reliance on data set targets such as percentage of A* to C grades are becoming a thing of the past. Performance Related Pay is being removed from state schools from September 2024. 

Any impact of individual teachers on examination results anomalies is less likely now than in 2012. At that time many GCSE English teachers would have had a 5A*-C percentage on their appraisal paperwork.  This is a positive step in a profession where collaboration, consistency and teamwork are recognised and make each day in school a team effort…not a solo sport culminating in a data set in isolation.

Malpractice and maladministration

So, when might the results day download impact you in school? We all like to see the celebrating pupils gleefully jumping in the air. But what if something has gone wrong? Worse still, what if that thing is something you did…or didn’t do?

Issues around externally accredited awarding of exam grades are taken very seriously. Those of you who have marked for exam boards know how rigorous the system at individual paper marking level is. This is equally true for all the arrangements around the whole process. Any exams officer will happily talk to you about the rules around storage of papers, who can and cannot be in the exam room and when you get to see the actual paper. 

But…imagine the school gets a call from the awarding body asking for an investigation. The school is asked for an initial response to questions raised. And it is you they need the answers from.

Will it be enough to say: “I thought that was within the rules”, “I have always done that and so does everyone else”, “we just interpreted the regulations that way”, “I just wanted them do well, they have had such a hard year”. See the problem? 

Whose responsibility is it to get it right? Well the centre carries the onus of ensuring that everyone understand the regulations, sends staff to the right courses or meetings and follows the guidelines. However, you not knowing the assessment criteria, syllabus, structure or regulations won’t likely be a particularly credible defence, no matter what the circumstances around this are. 

So what could happen?

Well the full range of options exist here. In some cases examining bodies will deliver a scathing letter to the Head and advise on the additional training and scrutiny the centre will get next year; at the other end of the spectrum, malpractice could see staff at a hearing of the Teacher Regulation Agency fighting to save themselves from being on a barred list.

Ultimately an internal investigation is almost certain if a concern is raised. This may then follow through into a disciplinary process if enough evidence of wilful wrongdoing or carelessness is evident.

But what if the results are just… ‘a bit disappointing’?

Of course this happens. However, someone in school may begin to suggest this is through lack of ability to teach adequately. Normally things are as you broadly expect. But when things don’t go to plan…is a capability process likely? Recent changes to the Capability model policy from the DfE state that:

“Notification of a formal capability meeting should never come as a surprise to the teacher concerned. Informal support and a performance improvement plan should mean that the teacher is fully aware of the concerns being raised and they should have had every opportunity to improve in a supportive environment”.

Informal support is mentioned specifically in the model policy. Combining these two aspects together, the response to disappointing exams results may lead to support, but this should not be a surprise. Exam results on their own should rarely (if ever) be a stand alone capability issue.

Preparation.

So what to do? As you stride confidently into September take a moment to reflect on the courses you teach and the assessment process and criteria. Take time to ask that question you never quite got an answer to; ultimately the exam board will be able to advise. Make it your job to know. Thinking it won’t happen you may be perfectly correct; but then again, it might not be correct.

Finally…join an organisation that will support, advise and stand with you using their professional expertise, experience and employment law knowledge to protect your employment should the questions be levelled at you.

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